How low can the Bitcoin price go?


Bitcoin (BTC) price continues to tread at depressed levels in what has become one of the crypto market’s quietest periods in history. Meanwhile, several technical and fractal setups suggest that the BTC/USD pair could drop to as low as $21,750 in the coming months.

Let’s take a closer look at the nearest support levels to determine just how low can the Bitcoin price go. 

Bear flag channel hints at $23K BTC price

Bitcoin has consolidated inside a horizontal trading range since mid-August 2023, defined by $26,670 as resistance and $25,650 as support. Briefly, BTC price broke out of the range in reaction to fundamental news, such as new Bitcoin ETF applications and the FTX liquidation fears.

BTC/USD daily price chart. Source: TradingView

But overall, traders have kept the BTC price inside the $25,650-26,670 range. Looking broadly, this range appears like a “bear flag,” a bearish continuation pattern characterized by a consolidation channel forming after a strong downtrend.

As a rule of technical analysis, bear flags resolve after the price breaks out of their range to the downside and falls by as much as the previous downtrend’s height. Applying these parameters to the ongoing Bitcoin price consolidation brings its bear flag target around $23,000.

BTC/USD daily price chart ft. bear flag breakdown. Source: TradingView

In other words, BTC price can drop nearly 15% from current price levels by the end of the year.

Bitcoin’s bear market support setup

Bitcoin’s bear markets since 2017 have typically exhausted near a common ascending trendline support, as shown below. BTC price tested the trendline in November 2022 at around $16,750 and has since increased by 70%.

BTC/USD weekly price chart. Source: TradingView

That said, Bitcoin may have already bottomed out in the ongoing bear market. However, the price will need to decisively break above its 0.236 Fib line near $28,350 to confirm its long-term bullish recovery based on the historical fractal — which it just failed to do.

Related: Bitcoin’s cycles are changing — Bloomberg analyst Jamie Coutts explains how and why

Bitcoin now treads below the 0.236 Fib line, raising possibilities of a retreat toward the bear market trendline support that’s also near $23,000.

Bitcoin “death cross” soon?

Bitcoin inches closer to forming a death cross between its 50-day (the red wave) and 200-day (the blue wave) exponential moving averages (EMA). 

BTC/USD daily price chart. Source: TradingView

That is Bitcoin’s third death cross formation during the Federal Reserve’s interest rate hike period, with the previous two crossovers preceding 17-18% price declines.

Therefore, should the fractal play out again, the bearish BTC price target in this case will be at around $21,750.

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