“Trying to predict the future is a discouraging, hazardous occupation.” — Arthur C. Clarke, 1964

What I said in 2022

In the first week of 2022, I wrote down my five thoughts for the year at the intersection of creativity and technology. I called them “thoughts,” not “predictions,” because they were observations of new patterns that would have an impact on how we create and society at large over multiple years to come. A prediction tends to be a finite event in time whereas patterns need time to emerge. Changes are gradual until they aren’t.

Let’s see how my thoughts fared since then. Or feel free to scroll down to “Patterns and Predictions for 2024.”

What I said #1: 2022 = 1999

“2022 will be like 1999. Mostly up and then a sudden drop (like the dotcom bubble back in the day), followed by 15–20 years of drastic and upward changes like we’ve gone through in the last two decades but in new and unexpected ways.”

Verdict: 🤝

At the time of the writing, NFT and the metaverse were still hot topics. The launch of ChatGPT was 11 months away. A few years earlier in 2018, OpenAI introduced the first GPT so there was an early glimpse of generative AI.

Did I think that something like ChatGPT would launch in 2022 and take the world by storm? No. Did I sense some big change was about to happen and we’d see the next wave of massive transformation like we did at the turn of the millennium? Yes. I was partially correct so I’d put my verdict as 🤝

What I said #2: New Creativity = (Making x Tenacity) x Anyone

“Creativity is now decentralized. Creative work used to belong to the elite few: those who had access one way or another (i.e. money, resources, titles called “creatives,” etc). Now, it belongs to anyone with not only the will to make something but also the tenacity to continue making.”